Treaty Issues Poll
December 2024

Curia Market Research

POLL DATES: Sunday 01 December to Tuesday 03 December 2024. The median response was collected on Monday 02 December 2024.

TARGET POPULATION: Adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote.

SAMPLE POPULATION: Adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote, who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel.

SAMPLE SIZE: 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel.

SAMPLE SELECTION: A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.

RESPONSE RATE: Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

OMNIBUS STATUS: The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.

WEIGHTING: The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.

SAMPLE ERROR: Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level.  Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

The next few questions are about the Treaty of Waitangi, which was signed in 1840 between the then British Crown and many Māori chiefs.

Since 1975 Parliament has passed around 40 laws referring to the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi, but these laws do not define with those principles are.

Following are various bodies that some have said should determine what the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi are. For each one please indicate whether you think that body should determine what the principles are, with the options being strongly disagree, somewhat disagree, somewhat agree and strongly agree

• Parliament
• A referendum of all adult New Zealanders
• The judiciary
• The Waitangi Tribunal

Net agreement that a body should determine what the principles are is:

• Referendum +25%
• Parliament +21%
• Waitangi Tribunal +16%
• Judiciary +7% 

If there is a serious disagreement between those four bodies as to what the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi are, which body do you think should have the final say?

Should it be Parliament, a referendum, the judiciary or the Waitangi Tribunal? 

National, ACT and NZF voters support Parliament or a referendum having the final say on the principles.

Labour, TPM and Greens voters support the Waitangi Tribunal having the final say. 

There are a number of statements that people have made on the issue of the Treaty of Waitangi. For each statement please indicate if you strongly disagree, somewhat disagree, somewhat agree or strongly agree with it.

• I want New Zealand to honour the Treaty of Waitangi, but only if it can do so in a way that doesn't undermine fundamental human rights such as equality of suffrage where all votes have roughly equal power.

62% agree and only 12% disagree with the statement they want NZ to honour the Treaty so long as it is done in a way that doesn’t undermine fundamental human rights.

Net agreement by party vote is:

• ACT +63%
• National +63%
• NZF +61%
• Labour +45%
• Greens +26%
• TPM -17%

TPM supporters were the only ones to overall disagree with the statement. 

• I think the Treaty of Waitangi means that 50% of all Members of Parliament must be Māori

Only 13% of respondents agree that the Treaty means 50% of MPs must be Māori with 60% disagreeing.

Net agreement by party vote is:

• TPM +35%
• Greens -33%
• Labour -48%
• National -51%
• NZF -68%
• ACT -77%

Only TPM supporters thinks the Treaty means 50% of MPs must be Māori.

• The Treaty of Waitangi requires water companies to be co-governed by local councils and Iwi

26% agree the Treaty requires co-governance of water companies and 33% disagree. Note this is different to asking if they support co-governance of water companies – the question was whether the Treaty requires it.

Net agreement by party vote is:

• TPM +40%
• Greens +26%
• Labour +18%
• National -26%
• NZF -46%
• ACT -50%

TPM, Greens and Labour voters think the Treaty does require co-governance of water companies, while National, NZF and ACT voters do not.